Will Nicola Sturgeon’s Big Independence Gamble pay off?

It is unlike its predecessors Alex SalmondNicola Sturgeon has never been known to gamble.

While Salmond liked nothing more than the rolling of political dice, his former protégé and former ally was always far more circumspect. This is what it was, at least until now.

In the wake Supreme Court rulingSturgeon confirmed her plan for betting on the black plantation, pointing out that the Scottish Parliament was not empowered to legislate to establish a second independence without Westminster’s consent.

She stated that a special SNP conference would take place in spring to decide the party’s next steps. She was clear in her preference: The next UK general election should be the “de-facto” independence referendum for Scotland.

Her plan would see at least 50% support the SNP or other pro-independence parties. This would trigger negotiations with Westminster about Scotland’s departure from the UK.

It’s a huge gamble in politics. There’s no guarantee that the 50% threshold will ever be met, nor that the UK government will accept it as a devolution.

Sturgeon stated that it was no longer a question of whether or not Scotland would become independent. However, this decision was important at a news conference after the High Court ruling.

“It is now more fundamental. It is now about whether we have a basic democratic right or not to choose our future.

“Indeed, the independence movement, as of today is as much a democracy as it’s about independence.

However, even though the opinion of the Scottish public on independence hasn’t changed since the 2014 referendum results, recent polls show that Sturgeon’s latest plan for introducing it is not popular with voters.

Savanta ComRes’s October poll found that only 32% thought it was “the right” to treat the UK election as a referendum on independence. 55% disagreed.

Writing in a pro independence paper the NationalMark McGuigan is a pollster who is also an expert in separatist movements. He stated: “On the current Poll the SNP will fail – even with the votes from other pro independence parties such as the Scottish Greens and Alba.

“Even though they don’t, it is questionable whether a majority pro-independence vote can be seen as a mandate for independent.”

He said, “The de-facto vote may be the last of the SNP’s dead lists, but it seems like one the public would reject.”

Sturgeon’s party is far from united behind her plan.

Even those loyal to their leader consider it an unnecessary risk. They point that if support is not at least 50% for pro-independence parties in 2024 then the question will continue to be open for a generation.

They argue that it is better to continue building support and momentum for independence until it becomes politically impossible for Westminster rejecting indyref2.

Stuart MacDonald, a SNP MP and one of Sturgeon’s most vocal supporters in Westminster, voiced his concerns on Twitter about his leader’s strategy.

He stated that the party should have a strong debate about its options before signing up to Sturgeon’s plan.

He stated that whatever mechanism we, as a party, choose to resolve the issue… it must do exactly what it says: It must be capable of achieving independence if that is what people freely choose in a legal democratic process. And the voice.

Both working and conservative Remain firmly opposedA second referendum on independence was called by the group. They argued that politicians should be focusing on the cost-of-living crisis and not on constitutional disputes.

Pro-union parties will approach Scotland’s next general elections in the same way as any other party. They will lay out their policies on a variety of issues, including Scottish independence.

They hope the majority of Scots will vote for this basis, rather than dividing the UK.

HuffPost UK was told by a British government source that “there is a way to have referendum”

“If you remove all the rhetoric, the Sturgeon fish accept the political reality which is that they must increase support for independence, something that they individually failed to do.

“Our focus is very much upon what we’re doing to address issues that really matter to people like rising energy bills and how we can collaborate with the Scottish Government to make it happen.”

Sturgeon must be hopeful that Scottish voters will eventually believe her argument that indyref2 should be the next election.

If they don’t, a life of high-profile victories in politics will end in defeat.